Analysts from banking group Morgan Stanley have revised their previous prediction for Macau’s gaming market, stating its gross gaming revenue for 2021 will be $24bn, with corporate EBITDA standing at $6.4m.
The new estimate is 65% of 2019 GGR levels, which is below the consensus for 70%.
The weakened VIP segment was named as one of the reasons for the adjusted prediction. VIP revenue should be 40% of 2019 levels and mass-market revenue is anticipated to be 80%: «VIP will continue to drag overall GGR down.»
China recently approved new penalties for those who organise overseas gambling for mainland citizens and the new laws will come into effect on 1 March.
According to Morgan Stanley analysts, «one third of Asian gaming revenue comes from outside of Macau, part of which is contributed by Chinese consumers and could come back to Macau, with recently unveiled criminal law also making it more difficult for overseas countries to solicit Chinese consumers.»
However, despite the setbacks, Macau’s GGR could reach $47bn in 2022. Some venues in Macau also have planned expansions that should welcome guests in the near future, which can further increase demand and raise share prices.
The analysts added: «Stocks also tend to outperform 6-12 months before the opening of mega casino openings. We expect 2021 to be an important year in which both of these activities drive outperformance for Macau stocks.»