Analysts predict Macau to reclaim 20% of APAC revenue by 2022

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Analysts predict Macau to reclaim 20% of APAC revenue by 2022

With ongoing travel restrictions in place across Asia, Macau casinos could reclaim 20% of APAC revenue previously lost to neighbouring territories by 2022, according to a Morgan Stanley report.

The “onshoring” of Chinese gaming consumers stands to benefit mass-market table and slot providers in the Special Administrative Region. Morgan Stanley estimates that APAC (excluding Macau) land-based gross gaming revenue was $10.3bn in 2019, and, providing a general market recovery in the next 12 months, these levels could be reached again in 2022.

Should travel restrictions continue to exist in some form, however, Macau could claim up $2bn of this revenue, with Chinese bettors forced to visit domestic resorts, rather than those across national borders.

“According to our estimate, 20 percent of all Asia (ex-Macau) mass revenue could come back to Macau by 2022,” Morgan Stanley analysts Praveen Choudhary, Thomas Allen and Gareth Leung, commented.

“With higher travel restrictions… we expect part of this business to come back to Macau.”

Any such revenue reclamation would only strengthen Macau’s market-leading position in APAC. The Morgan Stanley report estimates that the region had around 66% of gross gaming revenue share in 2019, the last available full period of trading. This dominance resulted in Macau casinos generating close to $22bn in the 12 months.

The report did not make note of other APAC casino developments, such as the ongoing IR projects in South Korea and across Japan, as well as the rapid market maturation currently being experienced in Vietnam, Cambodia and the Philippines.